What’s up, guys? A bit of a crossover episode today—I wanted to talk about marketing in bourbon. There’s been a lot of chatter about the bourbon market softening. Maybe not necessarily a full-on decline, but definitely some noticeable shifts.

When it comes to buying bourbon, there are a few general rules. Getting close with your local store owner helps because you start to understand how they select bottles, the money that goes into acquiring them, and the money involved in reselling them. Some of the behind-the-scenes details can be pretty eye-opening. Besdies, Still Austin, I’m not naming specific distilleries since this applies across the board, but I am going to mention price ranges, so I’d rather keep that whitelisted.

The Power of Marketing: Still Austin’s Strategy

I want to start off with a success story—how marketing has fueled interest in a brand that might not have otherwise had the traction it does. A perfect example? Still Austin.

If you didn’t already know, bourbon can be made anywhere in the U.S. A common misconception is that it has to come from Kentucky. Not true. The only real regional U.S. whiskey designation is Tennessee whiskey, which is mostly due to the Lincoln County Process. I won’t go too deep into that, but essentially, Tennessee whiskey has to go through this charcoal filtering process, making it unique to the region. But bourbon? That can be made anywhere in the U.S.

Still Austin has built its entire marketing campaign around the idea that bourbon doesn’t have to come from Kentucky. It’s a genius approach. They use real comments from people saying, “Bourbon can only be made in Kentucky” or “I’d never drink a bourbon that wasn’t from Kentucky.” They take those criticisms head-on in their ads and use them as a platform to showcase why their bourbon is legit.

And while I’ve roasted Still Austin before (don’t take my roasts too seriously—they’re just for fun), I’ll be the first to admit they make some really solid bourbon. There are some bottles I haven’t been able to get because they’re region-specific, but the ones I’ve tried here in Colorado have been fantastic. Their cask-strength bourbon is only two years old, but you wouldn’t know it by drinking it. Younger bourbons often have that grainy finish, but their two-year doesn’t. Maybe it’s the Texas heat accelerating the aging process—who knows? But whatever they’re doing, it works.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: as their bourbon gets older and hits those sweet spots, it’s going to be something special. Their marketing is built around the “Why not us?” concept. If bourbon can be made anywhere, and they have a great climate for aging whiskey, why shouldn’t they be taken seriously?

The Price Problem: A Market in Transition

But here’s the real issue: price.

You can find two-year-old bourbon on the shelf for significantly less than what a bottle of Still Austin costs. A cask-strength Still Austin bottle runs anywhere from $60 to $80. And with the bourbon boom cooling, I suspect we’re going to see a lot of these prices come down.

Distilleries are closing because they overproduced. Bourbon, in a way, operates like a stock market—it heats up, cools down, and people try to capitalize on trends. Back in 2019, a lot of distilleries saw the boom, went all in, and dumped massive investments into production, assuming it would never slow down. Now, we’re seeing the first signs of the cool-down.

Rare bottles are becoming more attainable. I’ve been seeing a lot more Elmer T. Lee hit the market. Buffalo Trace products that used to be impossible to find are popping up more frequently. When those once-elusive bottles start hitting the shelves regularly, niche brands lose some of their appeal. If a customer sees an Elmer T. Lee for $60 and a Still Austin bottle for the same price, they’re probably grabbing the Elmer T. Lee. It’s a storied brand, and Buffalo Trace has built a reputation for quality.

The Challenge for New Brands

This is the uphill battle that new brands are facing. They’ve spent heavily on marketing and expanding production, but if the market shifts and consumers start gravitating back to established names that are now more accessible, those smaller brands will struggle.

Still Austin has done a great job carving out a niche for themselves, but many newer distilleries won’t be able to sustain their growth. The problem is that they’ve already poured significant money into production and warehouses, and they can’t just pivot overnight.

Retailers also have a say in this. Right now, prices haven’t fully adjusted, but we will likely see that shift in the next couple of years. The first phase of the market correction is already happening—allocated bottles are becoming easier to find. The second phase is what we’re seeing now: new brands asking for premium prices they probably can’t justify. The third phase will be when those brands start cutting prices to stay competitive.

The Rule of 10 and the Future of Bourbon Pricing

A good way to gauge bourbon pricing is the Rule of 10—essentially, a bourbon should be priced at around $10 per year of aging. So a 13-year bourbon should be about $130. But because of the bourbon boom and aggressive marketing, we’re seeing 13-year bourbons hitting shelves for $200 to $250.

Meanwhile, brands like Elijah Craig are putting out 10-year bourbons for $70-$80. When you have a reputable brand with a proven track record selling a well-aged product at a reasonable price, it’s tough for newcomers to compete—especially when those newcomers are asking for a premium price without the history to back it up.

A Liquor Store Owner’s Dilemma

A store owner I work with recently had a choice between a 5-year, 7-year, 10-year, and 13-year bourbon from a newer distillery. The pricing lined up pretty well with the Rule of 10, but he was unsure which to carry. He was leaning toward the 7-year, which would retail for about $80. And honestly, I think that’s the sweet spot.

Right now, the market isn’t in a place where it can handle too many $100+ bottles. If I’m being real, I don’t even think it can sustain too many $80 bottles. But a store with a good reputation for selecting solid picks can still move those bottles at that price point.

The Future of Bourbon: Who Survives?

We’re at a turning point.

Phase one is already in motion—allocated bottles are hitting the shelves more frequently. Phase two is the influx of new brands trying to command premium prices. Phase three will be the inevitable price drops as retailers adjust to consumer demand.

Not every brand is going to make it. It won’t be because they make bad bourbon—it’s just that the market is shifting. With economic uncertainty and the bourbon boom cooling, brands will have to prove they have staying power. It’s not just about marketing anymore—it’s about who has the resources to weather the downturn, who can adjust pricing, and who can retain consumer interest when competition gets tighter.

Some brands will hold firm on their prices for as long as they can. But ultimately, the market decides what’s worth it—and we’re about to see which distilleries can adapt and which ones will struggle to keep up.