March 2026 Update: The Boom Is Not Just Cooling. It Is Correcting.
When I wrote this post back in October 2024, I called it a cooling. A year and a half later, I need to update that read. What we are watching now is a full market correction, and Colorado is giving us a front-row seat.
Here is what I have been tracking on the ground in Colorado Springs over the last few weeks.
Our quarterly allocation drop landed with EH Taylor Straight Rye, Single Barrel, and Barrel Proof. Stagg. Blantons Gold and Straight From the Barrel. Hancocks. Elmer T. Lee. Weller Single Barrel across two weeks of drops. Stores made big announcements. The day after those announcements, I walked in and found bottles still sitting on tables. Blantons Gold at MSRP. Stagg at MSRP. EH Taylor just sitting there. That was not normal six months ago.
The Weller Single Barrel price movement alone tells the whole story. Before the drop, local secondary was sitting between 330 and 370 dollars. First week of the drop, it fell to around 250. Day two, down to 200. By the end of the week, package deals were moving at 110 to 150. The bottle did not change. The scarcity story broke.
Bourboneur, which tracks the bourbon secondary market using real sales data, reported approximately an 11 percent decline across their tracked basket of bottles through 2024, with only a partial recovery since. Their specific data on Weller Single Barrel shows a substantial correction consistent with what we are watching live. Their broader finding is that the market is now splitting into tiers.
True blue chip bottles like the Pappy Van Winkle lineup are holding relatively stable. Mid-tier allocated bottles are correcting hard. And some of the newer limited releases that were riding hype more than genuine scarcity are falling fastest.
I was recently offered a bundle of Old Rip Van Winkle 10, Lot B, Winkle Special Reserve, and Pappy 15 for 2,500 dollars. The fact that someone is bundling Pappy to move it is a data point. Even at the top end, patience is thinning.
The national headlines are catching up to what enthusiasts have been seeing for months. The BBC ran a piece on how Kentucky bourbon went from boom to bust. VinePair covered distilleries closing. Jim Beam announced a year-long production pause. The bourbon market grew roughly 7 percent annually for a decade. That pace is over.
What I wrote in 2024 still holds in broad strokes. The boom has not fully busted. But the correction is real, it is measurable, and it is accelerating in certain categories. If you are a drinker, this is genuinely good news. If you have been holding bottles expecting the secondary market to come back strong, the data suggests you may be waiting a long time.
The rest of this post covers how we got here. The update above covers where we are now.
Today, we’re diving into something I’ve been pondering: is the bourbon boom over, or has it just cooled off a bit? This past weekend, I took a trip to a local liquor store I hadn’t visited before, tucked next to a Walmart here in Colorado Springs. The store had quite the selection, with a Weller 12, a Weller Full Proof, Stagg Jr., and even a CYPB on display. The first price tag I noticed was $69.99, and my initial thought was that it must be some sort of raffle or exclusive item, seeing as it was locked in a glass case. But as I got closer, I realized it was priced at $300, while the retail for Stagg is around $60. It wasn’t the only bottle marked up like that, but it got me thinking about where the bourbon market stands today.
Back in the day, it was easy to pick up a bottle of Eagle Rare for about $25 at Costco, after taxes. Now, if you can even find it on the shelf, it’s likely to cost you around $40 (before taxes). So, what exactly caused the bourbon boom? Many people credit the COVID pandemic for sparking the bourbon craze, and I tend to agree. People had more disposable income and plenty of time to explore new hobbies. Before COVID, I was a rye guy myself. But, like many others, I found myself drawn to bourbon and watching it transform from a readily available liquor to a highly coveted commodity.
A Look Back at the Bourbon Boom’s Pinnacle
The bourbon boom hit its peak around two years ago. That’s when distribution changes also started impacting the availability of certain bottles. When Buffalo Trace made some choices, replacing a distributor involved in some shady dealings, things changed. For the first six to eight months, it seemed like nothing was different, but then bottles started reappearing. The liquor store I frequent, just a few blocks away, saw its inventory change dramatically. The owner used to receive just a few bottles of Blanton’s, but suddenly, she was getting cases. Of course, prices had increased – what was once a $60-$65 bottle was now up to $75-$80. Even now, Blanton’s can often be found for $129, and just a few years ago, it could fetch up to $300 in certain markets.
I’ve noticed similar trends with other bottles, too. The secondary market for Weller 12, for instance, used to be around $200-$300 a couple of years ago. Today, that price has dropped to about $150-$180, reflecting a significant cooling in the market. You can also find more bottles on the shelves, albeit at higher prices.
Is the Secondary Market Cooling Down?
We all know the secondary market can be a mixed bag, with folks selling rare bottles like Elmer T. Lee and Weller 12 for prices far above retail. I’ve seen people selling entire cases of Weller 12 online for a serious markup, which is somewhat mind-blowing, given that retail prices used to be $40-$45. These days, you might find one for $55-$65 if you’re lucky enough to stumble upon an older store that hasn’t updated their prices or SKUs. In areas with less of a bourbon-focused clientele, like college towns, you might find these gems hiding on the shelf for reasonable prices.
It’s clear that the bourbon boom has cooled off, but it hasn’t completely busted. We’re not at a place where bourbon is easy to find at retail prices, but the market seems to be stabilizing. Collectors and bottle flippers are still out there, though, so if you’re serious about snagging certain bottles, you’ll need to be close with your local store, know the drop dates, and understand which stores are more likely to stock premium bottles.
Bourbon in 2025: What to Expect
The economy has played a part in cooling off the bourbon boom, too. Even with some major producers expanding their warehouses, like Buffalo Trace, we shouldn’t expect more of the rare stuff to suddenly flood the market. Building more warehouses doesn’t equate to more Pappy Van Winkle. With Buffalo Trace’s expansion, they’re likely looking to expand production of more basic lines rather than increasing the output of their more exclusive brands. Pappy and others are seasonal, limited, and remain in high demand – and for good reason.
There’s a misconception that expanding warehouse space means more of these coveted bottles will be available, but that’s likely not the case. Pappy will remain a sought-after, limited product, and Buffalo Trace may introduce new brands or expand some of its more accessible lines, but we won’t suddenly see Pappy or other rare bottles sitting on the shelves.
Keeping an Eye on the Bourbon Market
So, where does that leave us? Honestly, the best way to gauge the bourbon market is by keeping an eye on secondary prices. If they continue to fall and inch closer to retail, it might indicate that the boom is truly ending. However, as things stand, there’s still a demand for these bottles, and those involved in the market will keep scooping them up. I wouldn’t be surprised if, the trend continues that, those who can afford it start buying two or three bottles when prices drop slightly, contributing to the bottle scarcity.
If you’re really interested in bourbon, join local Facebook groups or online communities and stay updated on local secondary prices. As these prices continue to stabilize, liquor stores and collectors might start clearing out their stock, selling for more reasonable prices as demand slows.
To wrap things up, I don’t think the bourbon boom has fully ended – it’s just cooled. The secondary market’s correction is a good sign for buyers, and while it’s harder to find bottles at retail, it’s becoming more possible to find them at fairer prices. So, keep your eyes on those secondary markets and stay connected with your local stores. The bourbon game isn’t over – it’s just evolving. Cheers!